Source: Strategas as of 9/25/2018
Ongoing trade war and tariff concerns have driven a tremendous amount of negative sentiment. However, what many have failed to consider is the positive and offsetting stimulus that has occurred in the US over the past 12 months.
US Stimulus is nearly 5-10x larger than current tariffs that have been implemented globally. Bad news sells, and the danger of taking the cost of tariffs in isolation is missing the magnitude of positive growth stimulus.
The nearly $1 Trillion in stimulus should work its way into shareholder returns, capital spending, wage growth and infrastructure projects. We believe our portfolio is positioned to capitalize on these trends.
Our base case is that the ongoing trade dispute is more noise and negotiations rather than long-term fundamental disruption and shouldn't derail the solid global growth expansion.
This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on performance as an indication of future performance. Commentary may contain subjective judgements and assumptions subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecast. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2018